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<div id="readability-page-1" class="page">
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<article>
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<p>President Obama told the U.N. General Assembly 18 months ago that he would
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seek “real breakthroughs on these two issues — Iran’s nuclear program and
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Israeli-Palestinian peace.”</p>
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<p>But <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/netanyahu-sweeps-to-victory-in-israeli-election/2015/03/18/af4e50ca-ccf2-11e4-8730-4f473416e759_story.html"
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title="www.washingtonpost.com">Benjamin Netanyahu’s triumph</a> in Tuesday’s
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parliamentary elections keeps in place an Israeli prime minister who has
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declared his intention to resist Obama on both of these fronts, guaranteeing
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two more years of difficult diplomacy between leaders who barely conceal
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their personal distaste for each other.</p>
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<p>The Israeli election results also suggest that most voters there support
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Netanyahu’s tough stance on U.S.-led negotiations to limit Iran’s nuclear
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program and his vow on Monday that there would be <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/on-final-day-of-campaign-netanyahu-says-no-palestinian-state-if-he-wins/2015/03/16/4f4468e8-cbdc-11e4-8730-4f473416e759_story.html"
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title="www.washingtonpost.com">no independent Palestinian state</a> as long
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as he is prime minister.</p>
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<p>“On the way to his election victory, Netanyahu broke a lot of crockery
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in the relationship,” said Martin Indyk, executive vice president of the
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Brookings Institution and a former U.S. ambassador to Israel. “It can’t
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be repaired unless both sides have an interest and desire to do so.”</p>
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<p>Aside from Russian President Vladimir Putin, few foreign leaders so brazenly
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stand up to Obama and even fewer among longtime allies.</p>
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<div class="inline-content inline-video">
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<p class="inline-video-caption"> <span class="pb-caption">Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to form a new governing coalition quickly after an upset election victory that was built on a shift to the right. (Reuters)</span>
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</p>
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</div>
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<p>In the past, Israeli leaders who risked damaging the country’s most important
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relationship, that with Washington, tended to pay a price. In 1991, when
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Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir opposed the Madrid peace talks, President
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George H.W. Bush held back loan guarantees to help absorb immigrants from
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the former Soviet Union. Shamir gave in, but his government soon collapsed.</p>
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<p>But this time, Netanyahu was not hurt by his personal and substantive
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conflicts with the U.S. president.</p>
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<p>“While the United States is loved and beloved in Israel, President Obama
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is not,” said Robert M. Danin, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign
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Relations. “So the perceived enmity didn’t hurt the way it did with Shamir
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when he ran afoul of Bush in ’91.”</p>
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<p>Where do U.S.-Israeli relations go from here?</p>
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<p>In the immediate aftermath of Tuesday’s elections, tensions between the
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two sides continued to run hot. The Obama administration’s first comments
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on the Israeli election came with a tough warning about some of the pre-election
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rhetoric from Netanyahu’s Likud party, which tried to rally right-wing
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support by saying that Arab Israeli voters were “coming out in droves.”</p>
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<p>“The United States and this administration is deeply concerned about rhetoric
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that seeks to marginalize Arab Israeli citizens,” White House press secretary
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Josh Earnest told reporters aboard Air Force One. “It undermines the values
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and democratic ideals that have been important to our democracy and an
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important part of what binds the United States and Israel together.”</p>
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<p>Earnest added that Netanyahu’s election-eve disavowal of a two-state
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solution for Israelis and Palestinians would force the administration to
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reconsider its approach to peace in the region.</p>
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<p>Over the longer term, a number of analysts say that Obama and Netanyahu
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will seek to play down the friction between them and point to areas of
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continuing cooperation on military and economic issues.</p>
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<p>“Both sides are going to want to turn down the rhetoric,” Danin said.
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“But it is also a structural problem. They have six years of accumulated
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history. That’s going to put limits on how far they can go together.”</p>
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<p>The first substantive test could come as early as this month, when the
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United States hopes that it can finish hammering out the framework of an
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agreement with Iran.</p>
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<p>Netanyahu strongly warned against making a “bad deal” during his March
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3 address to a joint meeting of Congress, an appearance arranged by Republican
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congressional leaders and criticized by the Obama administration for making
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U.S.-Israeli relations partisan on both sides so close to the Israeli election.</p>
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<p>If a deal is reached and does not pass muster with Netanyahu, he is likely
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to work with congressional Republicans to try to scuttle the accord.</p>
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<p>“The Republicans have said they will do what they can to block a deal,
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and the prime minister has already made clear that he will work with the
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Republicans against the president,” Indyk said. “That’s where a clash could
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come, and it’s coming very quickly.”</p>
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<p>The second test — talks with Palestinians — could be even more difficult.
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In his September 2013 address to the United Nations, Obama hailed signs
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of hope.</p>
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<p>“Already, Israeli and Palestinian leaders have demonstrated a willingness
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to take significant political risks,” Obama said in his speech. Palestinian
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Authority President Mahmoud Abbas “has put aside efforts to shortcut the
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pursuit of peace and come to the negotiating table. Prime Minister Netanyahu
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has released Palestinian prisoners and reaffirmed his commitment to a Palestinian
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state.”</p>
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<p>Today, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/03/18/what-netanyahus-election-victory-means-for-the-palestinians/"
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title="www.washingtonpost.com">the signals could not differ more</a>. The
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Palestinian Authority has said that after it joins the International Criminal
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Court at The Hague on April 1, it will press war crimes charges against
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Israel for the bloody Gaza conflict during the summer. Israel, which controls
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tax receipts, has pledged to punish the Palestinian Authority by freezing
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its tax revenue.</p>
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<p>The United States, which gives hundreds of millions of dollars of economic
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aid to the Palestinian Authority, would be caught in the middle. It has
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been trying to persuade both sides to stand down, but Netanyahu’s declaration
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that there would be no Palestinian state on his watch makes that more difficult.</p>
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<p>“Now it’s hard to see what could persuade the Palestinians” to hold up
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on their ICC plans, Indyk said. “That has nothing to do with negotiations,
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but if both sides can’t be persuaded to back down, then they will be on
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a trajectory that could lead to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority
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because it can’t pay wages anymore.</p>
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<p>“That could be an issue forced onto the agenda about the same time as
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a potential nuclear deal.”</p>
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</article>
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<div><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/people/steven-mufson"><img class="post-body-headshot-left" src="http://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2014/07/mufson_steve.jpg&h=180&w=180"></a>
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<p
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class="post-body-bio has-photo">Steven Mufson covers the White House. Since joining The Post, he has covered
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economics, China, foreign policy and energy.</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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